Heat pump vs gas furnace: which costs less to run?
It mostly comes down to your state's ratio of electricity to gas prices. At federal-minimum heat pump efficiency (7.5 HSPF2), a heat pump costs less to run than a 95% gas furnace in 4 of 48 contiguous states. At a high-efficiency 9.5 HSPF2 that rises to 14.
Heating cost calculator
Defaults: EIA average residential electricity price (July 2026 YTD) and EIA 2025 annual average residential natural gas price, converted to $/therm using EIA's state heat content of delivered gas. Edit both to match your bills.
All 48 states: yearly heating cost, 2,000 sq ft home
| State | HDD/yr | Electricity | Gas/therm | Heat pump 7.5 HSPF2 | Heat pump 9.5 HSPF2 | Furnace 95% AFUE | Break-even ¢/kWh* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 2,669 | 16.54¢ | $1.70 | $932 | $736 | $757 | 13.4¢ |
| Arizona | 1,919 | 15.44¢ | $1.81 | $626 | $494 | $581 | 14.3¢ |
| Arkansas | 3,391 | 13.61¢ | $1.88 | $975 | $770 | $1,065 | 14.9¢ |
| California | 2,814 | 33.25¢ | $2.15 | $1,976 | $1,560 | $1,010 | 17.0¢ |
| Colorado | 7,053 | 16.72¢ | $1.05 | $2,491 | $1,966 | $1,232 | 8.3¢ |
| Connecticut | 5,849 | 27.97¢ | $1.63 | $3,455 | $2,728 | $1,592 | 12.9¢ |
| Delaware | 4,483 | 17.86¢ | $1.54 | $1,691 | $1,335 | $1,154 | 12.2¢ |
| Florida | 646 | 15.3¢ | $2.49 | $209 | $165 | $268 | 19.6¢ |
| Georgia | 2,807 | 15.4¢ | $1.98 | $913 | $721 | $926 | 15.6¢ |
| Idaho | 6,871 | 12.96¢ | $0.74 | $1,881 | $1,485 | $848 | 5.8¢ |
| Illinois | 6,105 | 19.22¢ | $1.07 | $2,478 | $1,956 | $1,093 | 8.5¢ |
| Indiana | 5,628 | 17.04¢ | $1.09 | $2,025 | $1,599 | $1,019 | 8.6¢ |
| Iowa | 6,822 | 14.2¢ | $1.00 | $2,046 | $1,615 | $1,139 | 7.9¢ |
| Kansas | 4,876 | 15.21¢ | $1.43 | $1,566 | $1,237 | $1,159 | 11.3¢ |
| Kentucky | 4,397 | 14.27¢ | $1.36 | $1,325 | $1,046 | $995 | 10.7¢ |
| Louisiana | 1,654 | 13.35¢ | $1.70 | $466 | $368 | $470 | 13.5¢ |
| Maine | 7,758 | 29.99¢ | $1.81 | $4,914 | $3,879 | $2,339 | 14.3¢ |
| Maryland | 4,563 | 21.3¢ | $1.55 | $2,053 | $1,621 | $1,182 | 12.3¢ |
| Massachusetts | 6,132 | 30.14¢ | $2.43 | $3,903 | $3,082 | $2,485 | 19.2¢ |
| Michigan | 6,745 | 21.53¢ | $1.03 | $3,067 | $2,421 | $1,159 | 8.1¢ |
| Minnesota | 8,534 | 16.25¢ | $1.04 | $2,929 | $2,312 | $1,481 | 8.2¢ |
| Mississippi | 2,389 | 15.19¢ | $1.63 | $766 | $605 | $648 | 12.8¢ |
| Missouri | 4,980 | 13.96¢ | $1.46 | $1,468 | $1,159 | $1,213 | 11.5¢ |
| Montana | 8,550 | 13.95¢ | $0.85 | $2,519 | $1,989 | $1,207 | 6.7¢ |
| Nebraska | 6,281 | 12.9¢ | $1.08 | $1,711 | $1,351 | $1,131 | 8.5¢ |
| Nevada | 3,452 | 13.53¢ | $1.26 | $986 | $779 | $726 | 10.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 7,449 | 26.79¢ | $1.79 | $4,215 | $3,327 | $2,225 | 14.1¢ |
| New Jersey | 5,168 | 23.98¢ | $1.37 | $2,617 | $2,066 | $1,180 | 10.8¢ |
| New Mexico | 4,462 | 15.08¢ | $0.96 | $1,421 | $1,122 | $717 | 7.6¢ |
| New York | 6,001 | 29.38¢ | $1.70 | $3,724 | $2,940 | $1,704 | 13.4¢ |
| North Carolina | 3,359 | 14.94¢ | $1.57 | $1,060 | $837 | $879 | 12.4¢ |
| North Dakota | 9,184 | 12.36¢ | $0.91 | $2,397 | $1,893 | $1,389 | 7.2¢ |
| Ohio | 5,689 | 18.7¢ | $1.30 | $2,247 | $1,774 | $1,237 | 10.3¢ |
| Oklahoma | 3,535 | 13.58¢ | $1.39 | $1,014 | $800 | $817 | 10.9¢ |
| Oregon | 5,268 | 15.4¢ | $1.55 | $1,713 | $1,353 | $1,365 | 12.3¢ |
| Pennsylvania | 5,701 | 21.04¢ | $1.45 | $2,533 | $2,000 | $1,380 | 11.5¢ |
| Rhode Island | 5,760 | 29.22¢ | $2.10 | $3,555 | $2,806 | $2,020 | 16.6¢ |
| South Carolina | 2,587 | 15.93¢ | $1.63 | $870 | $687 | $704 | 12.9¢ |
| South Dakota | 7,633 | 14.5¢ | $0.92 | $2,338 | $1,845 | $1,167 | 7.2¢ |
| Tennessee | 3,753 | 13.87¢ | $1.16 | $1,099 | $868 | $723 | 9.1¢ |
| Texas | 1,818 | 16.06¢ | $1.91 | $617 | $487 | $579 | 15.1¢ |
| Utah | 6,979 | 13.16¢ | $0.97 | $1,940 | $1,531 | $1,130 | 7.7¢ |
| Vermont | 8,058 | 23.95¢ | $1.72 | $4,076 | $3,218 | $2,308 | 13.6¢ |
| Virginia | 4,259 | 16.83¢ | $1.60 | $1,514 | $1,195 | $1,139 | 12.7¢ |
| Washington | 5,610 | 14.4¢ | $1.61 | $1,706 | $1,347 | $1,504 | 12.7¢ |
| West Virginia | 5,067 | 15.47¢ | $1.27 | $1,656 | $1,307 | $1,073 | 10.0¢ |
| Wisconsin | 7,529 | 19¢ | $1.02 | $3,021 | $2,385 | $1,285 | 8.1¢ |
| Wyoming | 8,224 | 13.95¢ | $1.11 | $2,423 | $1,913 | $1,527 | 8.8¢ |
*Electricity price at which a 7.5 HSPF2 heat pump costs the same to run as a 95% AFUE furnace at the state's gas price. Below it, the heat pump wins. Average insulation; heating degree days NOAA nClimDiv 1991–2020 (base 65°F).
How it's calculated, and its limits
- Heating load = floor area × U × heating degree days × 24 (same U values as our AC model).
- Heat pump kWh = load ÷ (HSPF2 × 1,000). HSPF2 is a seasonal rating for a moderate climate. In very cold states, real-world efficiency is lower and backup resistance heat kicks in, so treat northern heat-pump numbers as optimistic unless you choose a cold-climate model. 7.5 HSPF2 is the federal minimum for new split heat pumps (DOE).
- Furnace therms = load ÷ 100,000 ÷ AFUE. Gas $/therm = EIA $/Mcf ÷ (heat content Btu/ft³ ÷ 100).
- Fixed monthly gas customer charges are excluded. If switching lets you close a gas account entirely, the heat pump saves that too. A heat pump also replaces your AC.
- The federal 25C credit for heat pumps ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS).
Sources: EIA natural gas prices, residential, annual; EIA heat content of natural gas delivered to consumers; EIA Electric Power Monthly; NOAA NCEI nClimDiv (climdiv-hddcst).