Heat pump cost in Texas
It's nearly a tie in Texas (within $37 a year). For 2,000 sq ft we estimate $1,116 a year with a minimum-efficiency heat pump versus $1,079 for a gas furnace plus central AC.
Yearly running cost in Texas
| Heat pump heat, 7.5 / 9.5 HSPF2 | $617 / $487 |
| Heat pump cooling, 14.3 SEER2 | $500 |
| Furnace, 95% / 80% AFUE | $579 / $688 |
| AC at 14.3 SEER2 (Southeast min) | $500 |
| Heat pump vs furnace + AC | $1,116 vs $1,079 |
The heat pump costs about $37 a year more to run, so it has to win on purchase price, e.g. when the AC is due anyway.
16.06¢/kWh (EIA, July 2026 YTD); gas $1.91/therm (EIA 2025, $19.42/Mcf at 1,016 Btu/ft³). Energy only; estimates.
Installed cost (estimate)
We have no state-level installation data, so these are national estimates: about $10,000–$20,000+ installed for a 2,000 sq ft air-source system. Given Texas's cooling climate, start with the 14–15 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2 tier, which HomeGuide prices at $6,000–$12,000+.
Source: HomeGuide, “How much does a heat pump cost?” (2026).
Climate and sizing
Texas averages 1,818 heating degree days (46th of 48) and 2,809 cooling degree days (NOAA, 1991–2020). In practice, winters are mild (Jan averages roughly 49°F by a degree-day approximation), so backup heat rarely runs and the cooling side does most of the work.
A heat pump sized like a replacement AC is usually close here; confirm with a Manual J calculation.
Neighboring states
| State | Heat pump | Furnace + AC | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | $1,241 | $1,331 | 14.9¢ |
| Louisiana | $865 | $869 | 13.5¢ |
| Texas | $1,116 | $1,079 | 15.1¢ |
| Oklahoma | $1,303 | $1,105 | 10.9¢ |
| New Mexico | $1,589 | $885 | 7.6¢ |
Questions
How much is a heat pump in Texas?
About $10,000–$20,000+ for 2,000 sq ft (national estimate, HomeGuide). Get three local bids.
What electricity price makes a heat pump beat gas in Texas?
About 15.1¢/kWh for a 7.5 HSPF2 heat pump against a 95% furnace at $1.91/therm; prices would need to fall about 1.0¢ from Texas's 16.06¢ average. A 9.5 HSPF2 unit would heat for $487 a year.
Is there a federal heat pump tax credit in 2026?
Not for 2026 installs. The federal 25C credit (30%, up to $2,000/yr for qualifying heat pumps) covered property placed in service from 2023 through December 31, 2025; 2025 installs also needed the manufacturer's QMID on the return. Source: IRS: Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit.
Month by month
| Month | HDD | CDD | Heat pump | Furnace + AC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 491 | 17 | $169 | $159 |
| Feb | 338 | 23 | $119 | $112 |
| Mar | 208 | 70 | $83 | $79 |
| Apr | 60 | 124 | $43 | $41 |
| May | 4 | 307 | $56 | $56 |
| Jun | 0 | 484 | $86 | $86 |
| Jul | 0 | 582 | $104 | $104 |
| Aug | 0 | 584 | $104 | $104 |
| Sep | 2 | 395 | $71 | $71 |
| Oct | 46 | 167 | $45 | $44 |
| Nov | 233 | 44 | $87 | $82 |
| Dec | 437 | 11 | $150 | $141 |
Related: AC running cost in Texas · heat pump vs gas furnace calculator · heat pump cost by state
Sources: EIA electricity and natural gas prices, NOAA nClimDiv, U.S. DOE regional standards. Model: 2,000 sq ft, average insulation; methodology.